Intermarket analysis studies the relationships between asset classes, typically currencies, bonds, commodities, and stocks. It can help traders generate broader trading ideas, reveal potential market turning points, or confirm other analysis methods. The price action of currencies is often driven by their relationship with commodities, bonds, and stock indices. For example, here are some traditional intermarket relationships:…
As we said earlier, in order for someone to invest in a particular stock market, one would need the local currency in order to purchase stocks. You can imagine the effect that stock markets like the DAX (that’s the German stock market), have on currencies. In theory, whenever the DAX rises, we can probably…
Let’s see how the forex market can affect the stock market, specifically stock indexes. When people talk about the stock market, you generally hear them using a stock market index in reference to the market’s performance. A stock market index is simply a curated basket of certain stocks. This list of stocks is a way to get a…
One issue with using global equity markets to make forex trading decisions is figuring out which leads which. It’s like answering that age-old question, “Which came first, the chicken or the egg?” or “Who’s yo daddy?!” Are the equity markets calling the shots? Or is it the forex market that wears the pants in the relationship? …
Did you know that equity markets can also be used to help gauge currency movement? In a way, you can use the equity indices as some kind of a forex crystal ball. Based on what you see on the television, what you hear on the radio, and what you read in the newspaper, it seems that…
A quick recap: So far, we’ve discussed how differences in rates of return can serve as an indicator of currency price movement. As the bond spread or interest rate differential between two economies increases, the currency with the higher bond yield or interest rate generally appreciates against the other. Fixed income securities (including bonds) are…
The bond spread represents the difference between two countries’ bond yields. These differences give rise to carry trade, which we discussed in a previous lesson. By monitoring bond spreads and expectations for interest rate changes, you will have an idea of where currency pairs are headed. Here’s what we mean: As the bond spread between two economies widens,…
A bond is an “IOU” issued by an entity when it needs to borrow money. These entities, such as governments, municipalities, or multinational companies, need a lot of funds in order to operate so they often need to borrow from banks or individuals like you. When you own a government bond, in effect, the government has…
Historically, the price of oil is inversely related to the price of the U.S. dollar. The explanation for this relationship is based on two well-known premises. A barrel of oil is priced in U.S. dollars across the world. When the U.S. dollar is strong, you need fewer U.S. dollars to buy a barrel of oil. When the U.S….
Let’s talk about the other kind of gold… the black one. As you may know, crude oil is often referred to as the “black gold” or as we here at BabyPips.com like to call it, “black crack.” One can live without gold, but if you’re a crack addict, you can’t live without crack. Oil is…